8/7/2015 – People don’t believe the 2030 chart

I came to the realization recently that people don’t believe the chart that shows every road in this area over capacity by 2030.  It struck me after talking to someone who questioned the validity of this chart and said they didn’t believe it.

Over capacity segments in 2030

So this brings up some very interesting thoughts.

My thought is are you willing to make a 15 year bet that you are right if you don’t think this chart is accurate.  Are you all in with your poker chips on the hunch that the roads will not be over capacity in 2030.   I was half joking in my public comment at the 7/28 BCC meeting when I said people either didn’t want to believe or they don’t care that by 2030 all these roads are over-capacity.

But after the meeting and talking to that person, I came to the hard realization that there are people who really don’t believe this chart and that it is wrong.  I will err on the side of caution and am not willing to make this 15 year bet and will rely on this traffic study until someone disproves it.

Planner for SOC

This planner showed up at the meeting hired by Save Orange County.  I was unable to catch his name from his public comment.  He said he has been a planner for many years in South Florida.   He also said the people in the room were the traffic experts and know what is needed when it comes to the roadways.  He obviously was not referring to me but to the people who had hired him.

He showed a chart from a “Traffic Impact Analysis” that I believe he got from Orange County.  He said this was not a detailed traffic study.  He said that a traffic analysis and a traffic study are different.  He said decisions are being made on a “Planning Level Analysis”and they are not good enough.  He said “they” need to get into a more “detailed traffic engineering operational type analysis”.

He also feels that intersections can be improved to fix the problems.  He also spoke about the 9 light problem from Alafaya to Avalon Parkway and a flyover.  These last ideas are not new at all and have been suggestions made in the past that he is simply echoing.  Refer to this public comment I made to the Central Florida Expressway Authority on the light issue as well as a flyover on 3/12/2015.  I think he must have watched this clip for these ideas.

Here is my problem with what this planner said.  He used the word, “they” and “you” referring to Orange County.  Well if the public does not believe the traffic studies given to them by Orange County now what will change that perception if Orange County does this “detailed traffic engineering operational type analysis” and it comes out with the same results of over capacity roads by 2030.  The burden of proof is not on Orange County, it is on the people trying to disprove the chart above.  If there is a feeling that by 2030 these roads are not going to be over-capacity then prove it.  I would suggest the people who hired this planner conduct their own “detailed traffic engineering operational type analysis” and submit those results to the county for review.  In the next few months there will be more work done on roadway ideas and studies and I am sure we will have positive results.

I am not in the camp that the roads are fine in 2030.  I also travel these roads and ride down McCulloch every single day and if the increased level of traffic I have experienced over the past 5 years is any indication of what is to come then something has to be done now to fix all the roads so we don’t end up with the mess this planner mentioned in his public comment.  I hear other people talk about the horrors on N. Tanner and Lake Pickett also so those roads aren’t fine either and need to be addressed in some way.

Just the fact that there is so much attention on our area is a good thing in my mind and with this much focus, these issues will be addressed and I think will be addressed to the satisfaction of most.  We are going to go through some rough roads of disagreement but in the end I do believe we will solve these problems and make this place a much better place to live.



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Posted in McCulloch Road.